[an abstract of the GCW article “The characteristics of alliances in step with the times“]
Sanctions are “weapons”, which therefore must be effective, hit the mark. Otherwise sanctions are not only a waste of time, but them can become counterproductive because the “smart ones” (for example those who have no scruples, probably because it is not a real Democracy, and the decisions of the Governors are absolutely independent from the will of the Citizens) can take advantage of the illusory safety of the sanctioners to expand their global power.
Paraphrasing Carl von Clausewitz, sanctions are the weapons that are used to avoid a situation of war: if they do not “really hurt” the opponent, they are useless and counterproductive.
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Russia’s attack on Ukraine showed that the sanctions applied against Russia for years have not worked.
This must lead to some reflections on how we can go beyond the current conception of sanctions (among other things, review the current Alliances, which have turned out to be out of step with the times).
The sanctions, to be effective:
● them must be applied on multiple levels:
– economic level: them must be able both to punish the ruling class (Politics and Market) so that it is forced to abandon the leadership of the country; and to significantly lower the quality of life of the population (in this case it is the equivalent of the bombing of the city of WW II).
It is crucial that the sanctioned people know that there is an attractive alternative to the current regime (it is one of the causes of the fall of the Berlin Wall).
– Judicial plan: necessary since the threat of severe sentences is a convincing weapon for those who are violating the rules (there are significant examples such as those of Milosevic and Saddam Hussein)
● them must be applied with a sufficient number of allies: (multi-lateral): it is necessary to have an effective position of force (in alliances there must not be any States dependent on the sanctioned Country in any way).
It is crucial – so that we can have the necessary position of strength – that each Ally is involved on the basis of a vital interest for the Nation, otherwise, as it was for Germany for the first part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this Nation will not be sufficiently motivated to face the burdens and risks of applying sanctions.
<see the in-depth article in the article “The characteristics of alliance in step with the times“>
